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WIN ... WIN
Big XII Opening Round
We smoked the Valley tourney going 3-0 ATS for BPO clients. Now I delve into my "other" backyard the Big XII and look forward to banging this tourney for ya:
Nebraska vs. Missouri
3:00 PM EST
I'm taking the over in this game. While Nebraska traditionally plays a very solid defense and slow ball, Mizzou will bring that 40 minutes of hell pressure to the court and force Nebraska to get into a running game. Look at the line, Mizzou is a double digit favorite. That tells me the linesmakers believe that Mizzou's defensive pressure will win out which will increase the tempo of the game. I'm not going big on this game because a day game in the Big XII tourney is unpredictable. I really do believe though that Mizzou's full court pressure will eventually force Nebraska out of their half court shell. If Mizzou is hot from the perimeter, this game will break 140. Let's roll on what I think should be an over play.
PC 3*** on Mizzou/Nebraska over 130
Bedlam Part III
Oklahoma vs. Oklahoma State
7:00 PM EST
Again, another over. Oklahoma State has finished the season strong and they are a lock for the NCAA tourney. Oklahoma's only way into the tournament is to win the Big XII tourney and get the auto bid. To me, that translates into a high scoring affair. James Anderson is the best #3 forward you haven't heard about. He's absolutely amazing and can take over a game with his scoring ability. Okie State loves to run and Capel's boys should indulge the Cowboys in what I think is the best game of the opening round of the Big XII tourney. The Sooners will be desperate for the win (see free play) and will run and gun with the Cowboys. The inside play of Moses is non existent for the Cowboys, and Oklahoma will feed Tiny Gallon and use an inside out game with Willie Warren to create scoring opportunities. This should be a low scoring first half and then an absolute barn burner 2nd half. In fact, if you play 2nd halfs, take the over with confidence no matter what the number if the first half falls belows 70. Don't take it if the first half total is 71 or more, but if it's under 70, take the 2nd half over with confidence. I really see this game being the most entertaining and the last 4 minutes of regulation should get us that over.
PC 3*** on Bedlam Part III over 142 (the battle of Oklahoma)
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WIN
I took Monday and Tuesday off as nothing really appealed enough to me to put my own money on it however tonight I found a game I like.
Take Oklahoma St -6 1/2 over Oklahoma at 7:00 for 3 units....
I rolled with Oklahoma big a few weeks ago against Texas and now I'm going against them as they have packed it in for the season. I think they want to lose and get the season over with. Oklahoma have lost their last 9 out of their last 10 games. Their 9 losses the average losing margin is 12 points. Oklahoma st. destroyed them in their last game and I don't think they let up here. James Anderson is a beast and won't be stopped tonight. I think he puts up at least 25. The all american is also a second team academic all american in the big 12 so the junior knows the importance of this game.
Head coach Travis Ford is under rated as he has this team believing. Oklahoma are 3-9 ats over the last 12. Oklahoma state meanwhile are 16-7 ats following an ats win and 4-0 ats over the last 4 versus a team with a losing record.
Take the Okie St Cowboys -6 1/2 for 3 JT units at 7:00
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WIN ... loss
8:05pm
Current Line: Denver -7.5
The Nuggets open a four-game trip Wednesday night looking for a fourth consecutive win overall and sixth straight road victory over the Minnesota Timberwolves. Anthony's unselfish play set the tone for the Nuggets over the last three games, as they averaged 29.0 assists in that span. They may need to continue to share the ball consistently with Kenyon Martin out. The forward missed the last two contests and is sidelined indefinitely after beginning plasma therapy for chronic patella tendinitis Monday. Martin is averaging 11.8 points and a team-best 9.6 rebounds, and his physical defense is also a key to Denver's success. After Joey Graham started for Martin and had eight points and three rebounds in a victory over Indiana on Friday, coach George Karl gave Johan Petro his first start of the season Sunday. The center responded with six points and a season high 10 boards. Minnesota has lost six straight and six in a row at home.
Play Against - Underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (MINNESOTA) - after a game committing 13+ more turnovers than opponents.
(43-15 since 1996.) (74.1%, +26.5 units)
Play Against - Home teams (MINNESOTA) - after allowing 100 points or more 5 straight games against opponent after scoring 55 points or more in the first half in 2 straight games.
(26-9 over the last 5 seasons.) (74.3%, +16.1 units)
Play On - Road favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (DENVER) - vs. division opponents, off 3 or more consecutive home wins.
(45-17 since 1996.) (72.6%, +26.3 units)
Play Denver -7.5, HKC 3*
5:00pm
Current Line: Wyoming -1
It's no secret we have struggled on the college hardwood this season but as in all our sports our numbers become stronger as the season goes on and we are onto a conf tourny system that has been drilling the man. Air Force has been garbage all year and is currently 0-5 in their L5, 2-11 on the road for the year and 1-15 in conf games this season. Wyoming who does not have much better stats in any of these areas in still better. The thing that should bring this one home for us is the fact the Air Force refuses to play uptempo while Wyoming trys to force opponents to run. Wyoming should control the temp in this one and take it to the Fly Boys. These two split their season series with each team winning on their home floor. Wyoming has covered 3 in a row ATS and will make it 4 in a row today in Sin City.
Play Against - An underdog (AIR FORCE) - after scoring 55 points or less in a loss to a conference rival against opponent off an embarrassing road loss scoring less than 60 points.
(35-15 since 1997.) (70%, +18.5 units)
Play On - All teams where the line is +3 to -3 (WYOMING) - after a loss by 10 points or more against opponent after scoring 50 points or less 2 straight games.
(30-9 since 1997.) (76.9%, +20.1)
Play Wyoming -1, HKC 3*
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loss ... loss
Seton Hall and Notre Dame. In this matchup you will see alot of common ground between these two teams. They both have explosive offense, have a high offensive FG%, and neither teams likes to play alot of defense. Both teams have been hot but I think this is the end for ND. Since Seton Hall got whooped by Pitt on 2-6-10 they are 8-2 with some impressive wins. Last night they almost blew the game with a few minutes left after being up by 26 points. They will be refocused because the Hall is a team that plays better when playing consecutive days, its something I can't explain but they are in a rythem and I look for it to continue. ND will miss Harangody's presence tonight as SH should outshoot and out rebound them.
The Hall +1.5 for 3 Mr W Units
Texas is a team that has burned me all year long. They have underachieved in a tough division and tonight they should be motivated to play. Their offense is insane and ranked 6th in the nation, they have some great shooters and rebound well on both sides of the ball. Iowa State is coming off their biggest win of the year beating Kansas State. Kansas State forgot to show up and shot 34% and went 3-23 on 3point plays! Iowa State played great shooting 28-59 which is 47.5% and made it to the free throw line 33 times. I don't look for Texas to win any title's this year but they are a much better and athletic team then Iowa State. This line is set at 9 to even out money and Vegas did an excellent job with that. I'm not buying into it and laying the 9
Texas -9 for 2.5 Mr W Units
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loss ... loss ... loss
T-Bone went undefeated again yesterday, were you there for the ride? T-bone is riding a 16-5 basketball run and has 3 strong 3* plays for you on a busy Wednesday in College Basketball.
Arkansas Pine Bluff defeated Mississippi Valley State by 16 just 6 days ago at home in a game where they were up big early. The only thing different today is the venue and that is not enough to get MVS to cover. Arkansas Pine Bluff is 14-4 in conference while MVS is a mere 8-10.
Take Ark Pine Bluff -8.5 for 3 T-BONE units.
Colorado defeated Texas Tech by 11 just 4 days ago in Colorado and Tech is coming off of 7 game losing streak and look like they have checked out for the season. Buffaloes are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite of 0.5-6.5 and 37-16-1 ATS in their last 54 vs. Big 12. Red Raiders are 4-9-1 ATS in their last 14 neutral site games,2-5 ATS in their last 7 games overall and 2-5 ATS in their last 7 vs. Big 12.
Take Colorado even for 3 T-BONE units.
Texas looks to make a push towards the big dance and are 9-7 in coference as opposed to Iowa State who is 4-12 in conference. Longhorns are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 neutral site games as a favorite and 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite of 7.0-12.5. Cyclones are 4-16-1 ATS in their last 21 games as an underdog of 7.0-12.5 and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 neutral site games.
Take Texas -8.5 for 3 T-BONE units
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